Hello friends of the Club of the Bet, how are you? Today we will do an analysis of the book “Fast and Slow: Two Ways of Thinking”, Daniel Kahneman.
If you’re still not inside of sports betting, meet a few of our free courses!
Therefore, check out below the analysis of some of the main ideas addressed by the author and their applications to the world of sports betting:
The two Systems
The book starts by addressing the idea that we all have the two systems in the mind. First, we have the System 1, which is a fast, intuitive and emotional. Then, we have the System 2, that system will slow, rational and logical.
The author put some examples to demonstrate the difference of each and how they work in our lives. An example is the questioning on the ball and the bat:
“A bat and a ball cost 1,10 us dollar.
The bat costs a dollar more than the ball.
How much costs the ball?”
Intuitively, most people tend to say that the value of the ball would be the $0.10. This occurs because we use our System 1 to resolve this issue, which seemed very simple at the first glance. If we think calmly and using logic, we will conclude that the ball will cost you $0.05 and the bat will cost $1,05.
However, in sports betting, we can apply this thinking always seek the our System 2.
The rational analysis is essential to the success of the bettors and the attitudes with excess of emotion, intuition and in a hurry, in the long term will yield poor results.
The science of Availability
In the following, the author discusses what he calls “the science of availability”.
At this point, he makes a great criticism of our traditional media, especially newspapers and television, that explore the urban violence, the chaos, the deaths and accidents as a way of leveraging the audience.
This causes people to become increasingly anxious and fearful, thinking that they are always close to happen a catastrophe in their lives.
There are some examples to be quite interesting, among them the example of airplane accidents vs. car accidents.
Accidents with commercial aircraft are extremely rare to occur, unlike car crashes. Even so, those who have fear of the plane you enter the aircraft thinking of the worst.
This happens because the media reverberates a lot more in an airplane crash than a car accident. Car crashes occur every day, all the time. But as we don’t see news of them all, the influence least of our fears.
These fears limiting are greatly influenced by what we see, read and hear. However, nothing of what we see, read or hear, in fact will increase the chances of an accident happening.
How can we apply this to sports betting? Stop thinking that there is “something against you”. The market behaves the way it should behave.
If, in the long term, your results are bad, the only wrong is you. If, in the long term, the results are good, it is not a phase-the bad that will shake.
Not to be negative. Don’t think that you will always lose. If you enter into the market, scared to death, something is wrong. Your input can be out of standards, your bankroll management can be done incorrectly,…
Who has a strategy well-aligned, bankroll management, game analysis correct, you will not have fear of losing. As you know that losing is part of the game. But, if you repeat those good attitudes always, will be profitable.
Fallacy of sunk cost
Decide the future based on the past. That is what this idea presented by the author.
You know that movie you were watching and, even not being so cool, saw until the end, since it already had spent more than an hour and it was closer to the end?
And that course or college that you thought about quitting, but as the house was only a few months or years, followed in the front?
The book “Fast and Slow” talks about these decisions that are made thinking about the past and cause us to lose something in the future. Be it time, money, and health.
However, in the case of sports betting, it touches directly on the bankroll management.
Example: If you have a bankroll of $1000 and lost $600 in a given day, does not mean that you should use the other $400 that same day by being “in the middle of the path”.
A lot of people would use the rest as a way to try to recover and return to the level previous. It is thus that the stalls are broken.
It is a reflection: Will be that you would spend the $400 remaining of a time, from the beginning, you only had $400 bankroll? Those $400 will have the same value always. There is no need to do crazy things with that money.
Let’s say that you need to purchase a remote control for the fan.
If you ever have bought or sold a remote control for the fan, how will you know if you are paying for expensive or cheap?
The market determines a price , and you, probably, will make a comparison between the stores and sellers, choosing the best cost-benefit.
Therefore, the market to determine a price is what we call anchoring.
In the case of sports betting, we also talk directly with the market. The values, the odds, the odds are set by the market, based on various statistics and variables.
Therefore, it is up to the player to define, based on your criteria and analyses, and if that value makes sense or not for your bet.
The priming if it is recognize the patterns, and justify our choices based on these standards.
There are several examples. For example, when we walk into a store and feel the smells and the music pleasant. This automatically predisposes the consumer to purchase.
In addition, one study found that a vote to increase the funding of education in an american city, earned the most votes when the election occurred within schools.
All of this is based on patterns that we create in our mind to justify a later action.
Then, as bettors, we can create our strategies based on the patterns that we have tested and proven to generate profit in the long term. But, of course, these patterns only make sense after we have the confirmation, through testing, which is bringing good results!
The bias of confirmation
Question. This is what the author puts in the idea of the bias of confirmation.
We, when we believe strongly in something, we tend to repeat and replicate that without any question. Many times, even give chances to other ideas or opinions that they take us out of that comfort zone. This can be extremely harmful and make us more radical.
In betting there is only one truth. There is only one right way to bet, there is not only a strategy, a market or a pattern. If the market is volatile, as there would be a “magic formula”, it is not true?
Question, test, know, always study attitudes are good, even when you are a bettor profitable. Because nothing ensures that their way of acting today will always be profitable.
And nothing guarantees also that you could not be being much more lucrative acting otherwise.
The book brings insights that are of great importance, not only for our personal lives, but if we apply to the world of betting.
In addition, the author Daniel Kahneman is a winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics and his teachings are highly respected and of great value to various professionals, from different areas.
Therefore, to put all this into practice, certainly, changes the level of a bettor and the leaves each time more close to the professionalism.